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Suggest You - The Upcoming Presidential Election in France
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In several weeks there will be a Presidential election in France which will end the 12 year reign of Jacques Chirac. It looks to be a close and interesting race, and the first round of voting is on April 22. Here is a brief look at the top four candidates in the polls.
There are in fact 12 candidates who have qualified to be on the ballot based on obtaining the endorsement of at least 500 elected officials (mostly town mayors). This list will be pared down to two, and a second round of voting will occur two weeks after the first to decide the winner. The reason for two rounds of voting is that the President must be elected by a majority of those voting, and that is virtually impossible in one round with so many candidates.
Polls are notoriously inaccurate in France for choosing the eventual winner of an election. Many people do not decide upon their choice until the end of the campaign, and at best the polls are a snapshot of feelings on a given day.
The leading candidate in the polls thus far has been Nicolas Sarkozy, the leader of the UMP party. M. Sarkozy is known to be tough, sometimes blunt, decisive, and ambitious. He generally favors free enterprise as opposed to socialistic tinkering with the economy and markets. In particular he opposes the mandatory 35 hour work week limit passed several years ago by a socialist government. He is also outspoken about the existing immigration policies in France. He recently resigned as Interior Minister, a top cabinet position, in order to concentrate full-time on the campaign. He has held a lead in the polls for some time, but that lead is normally only a few percentage points. Polls currently indicate that he will be the top vote getter in the first round and would defeat Mme Royal in a second round match-up but would lose to Francois Bayrou in the second round.
The second strongest candidate in the polls thus far is Segolene Royal of the PS (Parti Socialist). The PS is of course on the left of the political spectrum. Mme Royal would be the first female President of France. One might say that she has a certain advantage in that the UMP party with Jacques Chirac, her most significant opponents, has held the office for 12 years, and the French might be ready for a change. M. Chirac’s popularity is currently quite low, although it has picked up a bit in recent weeks
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Polls are notoriously inaccurate in France for choosing the eventual winner of an election. Many people do not decide upon their choice until the end of the campaign, and at best the polls are a snapshot of feelings on a given day.
The leading candidate in the polls thus far has been Nicolas Sarkozy, the leader of the UMP party. M. Sarkozy is known to be tough, sometimes blunt, decisive, and ambitious. He generally favors free enterprise as opposed to socialistic tinkering with the economy and markets. In particular he opposes the mandatory 35 hour work week limit passed several years ago by a socialist government. He is also outspoken about the existing immigration policies in France. He recently resigned as Interior Minister, a top cabinet position, in order to concentrate full-time on the campaign. He has held a lead in the polls for some time, but that lead is normally only a few percentage points. Polls currently indicate that he will be the top vote getter in the first round and would defeat Mme Royal in a second round match-up but would lose to Francois Bayrou in the second round.
The second strongest candidate in the polls thus far is Segolene Royal of the PS (Parti Socialist). The PS is of course on the left of the political spectrum. Mme Royal would be the first female President of France. One might say that she has a certain advantage in that the UMP party with Jacques Chirac, her most significant opponents, has held the office for 12 years, and the French might be ready for a change. M. Chirac’s popularity is currently quite low, although it has picked up a bit in recent weeks
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The leading candidate in the polls thus far has been Nicolas Sarkozy, the leader of the UMP party. M. Sarkozy is known to be tough, sometimes blunt, decisive, and ambitious. He generally favors free enterprise as opposed to socialistic tinkering with the economy and markets. In particular he opposes the mandatory 35 hour work week limit passed several years ago by a socialist government. He is also outspoken about the existing immigration policies in France. He recently resigned as Interior Minister, a top cabinet position, in order to concentrate full-time on the campaign. He has held a lead in the polls for some time, but that lead is normally only a few percentage points. Polls currently indicate that he will be the top vote getter in the first round and would defeat Mme Royal in a second round match-up but would lose to Francois Bayrou in the second round.
The second strongest candidate in the polls thus far is Segolene Royal of the PS (Parti Socialist). The PS is of course on the left of the political spectrum. Mme Royal would be the first female President of France. One might say that she has a certain advantage in that the UMP party with Jacques Chirac, her most significant opponents, has held the office for 12 years, and the French might be ready for a change. M. Chirac’s popularity is currently quite low, although it has picked up a bit in recent weeks
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The second strongest candidate in the polls thus far is Segolene Royal of the PS (Parti Socialist). The PS is of course on the left of the political spectrum. Mme Royal would be the first female President of France. One might say that she has a certain advantage in that the UMP party with Jacques Chirac, her most significant opponents, has held the office for 12 years, and the French might be ready for a change. M. Chirac’s popularity is currently quite low, although it has picked up a bit in recent weeks
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The third strongest candidate in the polls thus far, Francois Bayrou of the centrist UDF party, has been a surprise. At the beginning of the year his poll numbers were low, about 6% intention to vote in the first round. He has steadily moved up in the polls to over 20%, a major advance, and he is thus not far from Mme Royal and M. Sarkozy. His centrist position seems to be appealing to the French, and in fact if he manages to make it to the second round, the polls show him defeating both Sarkozy and Royal! If he does not place in the top two, however, he will certainly have a large voice in determining the eventual winner, assuming his followers will adhere to whatever advice he chooses to give.
The fourth major factor in the campaign is Jean-Marie Le Pen, founder of the FN party. M. Le Pen is still dynamic at over 80 years of age, and he has been an outspoken factor in French politics for a long time. He actually made it to the second round of the 2002 election by defeating the PS candidate. This was a huge shock for the French at that time. It is inconceivable that M. Le Pen would ever be elected President of France. His message is very much right wing, and he is a strong nationalist and would certainly curtail immigration to France substantially. He is a lightening rod for anti-immigration sentiment and has a loyal following with whom his message resonates. Current polls show him at 13.5% intention to vote in round one, rather far behind Sarkozy at 28%, Royal at 23%, and Bayrou at 21%, according to the Ifop poll released on 30 March 2007. Le Pen surprised everyone in 2002, however, and the polls did not predict his success at that time, so anything is possible.
The other 8 candidates in the race, mostly from small far left or right wing parties, are splitting up the remainder of the vote. No other candidate has more than 3.5%
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